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International trade involves a variety of risks which are rarely
encountered in the pursuit of domestic commercial transactions. One of the key
risks (or opportunities, depending on how effectively it is managed) is the
exposure to foreign currency fluctuations and/or controls which are often
inherent to transacting international business.
Trade transactions are likely to involve a foreign currency from
the point of view of at least one, and possibly all, of the parties to a trade
deal. While the advent of the Euro may mitigate the foreign exchange (FX) issue
on the Continent, many deals are still denominated in US Dollars, due to the
strength of the American economy and the relative stability and availability of
the currency.
A trade deal in which a French exporter agrees to ship to a
Canadian importer against a US-Dollar Documentary Letter of Credit implies FX
risk for either or both parties, depending upon the fluctuation of the value of
the US Dollar (USD) relative to the Euro (EUR) and the Canadian Dollar
(CAD). Conversely, favourable movements in exchange rates can introduce
opportunities for trading parties.
The Table below illustrates the impact of FX fluctuations on
cost and revenue. The first
two columns represent the change in the value of the US Dollar relative to
the Canadian Dollar and the Euro, and the last two columns illustrate
the impact on the buyer and seller:
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| USD/CAD |
USD/EUR |
Importer (CAD) |
Exporter
(EUR) |
| + |
+ |
Increase Cost |
Increase Revenue |
| - |
- |
Decrease Cost |
Decrease Revenue |
| Par |
Par |
N/A |
N/A |
| + |
- |
Increase Cost |
Decrease Revenue |
| - |
+ |
Decrease Cost |
Increase Revenue |
| Par |
+ |
N/A |
Increase Revenue |
| + |
Par |
Increase Cost |
N/A |
| - |
Par |
Decrease Cost |
N/A |
| Par |
- |
N/A |
Decrease Revenue |
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The cost impact arises because the importer must typically
acquire (buy) US Dollars to fund the Letter of Credit, which is issued in US
Dollars by the importer's Bank. If the value of the US Dollar increases or
appreciates relative to the Canadian Dollar, it becomes more expensive to
purchase the American currency using the Canadian Dollar, which makes the
transaction more expensive for the importer, since everything ultimately gets
translated back to Canadian currency.
On the revenue side, the French exporter, having agreed to
transact business under a US Dollar Credit, will be paid in US currency, which
must typically be sold (converted to the Euro). If the US Dollar
appreciates against the Euro, the exporter earns a premium, being able to
acquire more Euros for the US Dollar payment remitted under the
Documentary Credit.
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Foreign Exchange Markets: A Brief History
Financial crises such as the
Asian Flu, the
devaluation of the Mexican Peso and the events in Argentina illustrate the importance of stability in
International Financial Markets, including the Foreign Exchange Markets.
The Bretton Woods agreement of 1944, aimed at stabilizing the
global economy after the ravages of war, represented the first modern attempt to
introduce some form of discipline to relative currency values, and articulated
the foundation for a global financial system which, for better or worse, is
still evolving today.
Bretton Woods spawned both the World Bank and the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), chartered to support post-war reconstruction efforts, and
to oversee the management of the world financial system, respectively. The IMF
was specifically mandated to make appropriate currency adjustments in order to
create and maintain a sense of stability in global financial markets.
Currency values or exchange rates were originally set or
"pegged" at certain values, and permitted to fluctuate only within
tight bands around those values. Gold reserves were, for a time, the basis upon
which exchange rates were determined, and the US Dollar was not only supported
by American gold reserves, but officially exchangeable for gold.
The Gold Standard effectively collapsed in 1971 when the United
States unilaterally withdrew its guarantee to exchange US Dollars for gold on
demand. The US had accumulated a large Balance of Payments deficit, and was
importing an ever-larger amount of goods and services from overseas, which
resulted in accumulations of US currency in foreign countries, which the
US gold reserves could no longer support.
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The Current Model
In the aftermath of Bretton Woods, a Floating-Rate system of
foreign exchange evolved, which is still in effect today, and is referred to as
a "Managed Dirty Float". This expression refers to three
characteristics of the system:
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Managed - National Central Banks, such as the US
Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada actively leverage fiscal and monetary
policy to attempt (with varying degrees of success) to influence exchange
rates in directions consistent with national objectives. |
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Dirty - Central Banks engage in Open Market
Operations, the purchase and sale of currencies to influence exchange rates
in desired directions. The reference here relates to the fact that currency
trading is not a purely market-driven activity. |
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Float - Exchange rates are largely permitted to float
up or down in the Market according to the dynamics of supply and
demand. |
Special Drawing Rights
Special Drawing Rights (or SDR's) are a financial instrument
created by the IMF to act as another form of Reserve, intended to facilitate
trade by creating liquidity in the marketplace. Participating countries in need
can use SDR's to obtain currency from other participants designated by the IMF.
Available reserves are allocated to member countries based on factors such as
share of Gross World Product and share of World Trade. The value of 1 SDR
once represented the weighted average of five currencies - the US Dollar, the German Mark, the
French Franc, the Japanese Yen and the British Pound.
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Factors Impacting Exchange Rates
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Balance of Trade - Net exporting nations will tend to
generate demand for their currencies, driving the value upwards. |
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Capital Flows - short term flows, driven by interest
rates which attract or drive out investors also impact demand for a given
currency, and therefore affect its exchange rate. Long term flows, driven by
expected returns on investment similarly impact exchange rates. |
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Inflationary Pressures - upward pressure will tend to
make purchases more expensive relative to other countries, driving demand
for the currency and therefore its exchange rate, down. |
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Fiscal, Monetary and Economic Policies - policies
which result in above-average growth rates will tend to support the
appreciation of a currency's exchange rate. |
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International Competitiveness - competitive nations
tend to see their currencies appreciate relative to others |
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Political Climate - Stability, both current and
future, or positive changes in political climate tend to support high
exchange rates. |
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FX Exposure & Mitigation
Broadly stated, there are two categories of foreign currency
exposure related to the conduct of business internationally. The first, referred
to as Translation Risk, occurs when business transacted abroad in foreign
currency (perhaps by a company subsidiary) must be reported and consolidated
into the Parent Financial Statements, in domestic currency. The time lag between
the foreign financial report and conversion/consolidation into the Parent
statements creates the possibility that the foreign currency has devalued
relative to the domestic, such that the revenues reported from the foreign
business need to be revised downwards. Given the requirements of double-entry
accounting that "Assets equal Liabilities plus Owner's Equity",
decreases in the contribution of foreign operations will ultimately result in a
decrease in Owner's Equity to keep the equation in balance. The Book Value of
the company accordingly decreases.
The second category of risk is referred to as Operating
Exposure, where activities such as sourcing/purchasing in foreign markets can,
in the event of unfavourable FX and/or price movements, adversely impact the
Present Value of a company's (expected) cash flows, thus affecting not the Book
Value, but the actual stock price, and by extension the Market Value.
A variety of financial devices exist to assist in optimizing or
mitigating foreign currency risk exposure, the details and application of which
can be assessed with professional assistance.
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Hedging, which involves taking an offsetting position in
another currency in expectation of a coming devaluation |
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Forward FX
Contracts, which can be bought to allow purchase
of a particular currency at a pre-determined (locked-in) rate, for
situations where an upcoming foreign currency exposure is known ahead of
time, such as the imminent issuance of a foreign currency letter of credit |
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Currency Swaps,
wherein parties agree to exchange a specified amount of one currency for
another at an agreed price. Usually, both principal and interest amounts are
exchanged, and the term exceeds one year |
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Currency
Options, which give the option holder a right (Call
Option) to purchase a given quantity of foreign currency at a predetermined
price, or a right (Put Option) to sell a given amount of currency into the
Markets at a preset price. Options may or may not be exercised by the
holder, and are ideal in cases where the foreign currency exposure may not
materialize, such as in responding to Tenders, where the winning bid
has not been determined |
Foreign Exchange, as with many aspects of
international commerce, presents risk as well as opportunity for the astute and well-informed
business manager and executive. If your trade volumes are significant, or your
deals are high value transactions, we recommend a thorough investigation of the
impact of Foreign Exchange on your business, and a review of the opportunities
which might exist to secure (or enhance) your success in the international
market.
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Copyright ©
2007 A.R. Malaket and OPUS Advisory Services, International
Webmaster:
webmaster@tradeopus.com
Last modified: October 2007
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