International trade involves a variety of risks which are rarely encountered in the pursuit of domestic commercial transactions. One of the key risks (or opportunities, depending on how effectively it is managed) is the exposure to foreign currency fluctuations and/or controls which are often inherent to transacting international business.

Trade transactions are likely to involve a foreign currency from the point of view of at least one, and possibly all, of the parties to a trade deal. While the advent of the Euro may mitigate the foreign exchange (FX) issue on the Continent, many deals are still denominated in US Dollars, due to the strength of the American economy and the relative stability and availability of the currency.  

A trade deal in which a French exporter agrees to ship to a Canadian importer against a US-Dollar Documentary Letter of Credit implies FX risk for either or both parties, depending upon the fluctuation of the value of the US Dollar (USD) relative to the Euro (EUR) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Conversely, favourable movements in exchange rates can introduce opportunities for trading parties. 

The Table below illustrates the impact of FX fluctuations on cost and revenue. The first two columns represent the change in the value of the US Dollar relative to the Canadian Dollar and the Euro, and the last two columns illustrate the impact on the buyer and seller:

 

USD/CAD USD/EUR Importer (CAD) Exporter (EUR)
+ +  Increase Cost Increase Revenue
- - Decrease Cost Decrease Revenue
Par Par N/A N/A
+ - Increase Cost Decrease Revenue
- + Decrease Cost Increase Revenue
Par + N/A Increase Revenue
+ Par Increase Cost N/A
- Par Decrease Cost N/A
Par - N/A Decrease Revenue

 

The cost impact arises because the importer must typically acquire (buy) US Dollars to fund the Letter of Credit, which is issued in US Dollars by the importer's Bank. If the value of the US Dollar increases or appreciates relative to the Canadian Dollar, it becomes more expensive to purchase the American currency using the Canadian Dollar, which makes the transaction more expensive for the importer, since everything ultimately gets translated back to Canadian currency.

On the revenue side, the French exporter, having agreed to transact business under a US Dollar Credit, will be paid in US currency, which must typically be sold (converted to the Euro). If the US Dollar appreciates against the Euro, the exporter earns a premium, being able to acquire more Euros for the US Dollar payment remitted under the Documentary Credit.   

Foreign Exchange Markets: A Brief History

Financial crises such as the Asian Flu, the devaluation of the Mexican Peso and the events in Argentina illustrate the importance of stability in International Financial Markets, including the Foreign Exchange Markets. 

The Bretton Woods agreement of 1944, aimed at stabilizing the global economy after the ravages of war, represented the first modern attempt to introduce some form of discipline to relative currency values, and articulated the foundation for a global financial system which, for better or worse, is still evolving today. 

Bretton Woods spawned both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), chartered to support post-war reconstruction efforts, and to oversee the management of the world financial system, respectively. The IMF was specifically mandated to make appropriate currency adjustments in order to create and maintain a sense of stability in global financial markets.

Currency values or exchange rates were originally set or "pegged" at certain values, and permitted to fluctuate only within tight bands around those values. Gold reserves were, for a time, the basis upon which exchange rates were determined, and the US Dollar was not only supported by American gold reserves, but officially exchangeable for gold.

The Gold Standard effectively collapsed in 1971 when the United States unilaterally withdrew its guarantee to exchange US Dollars for gold on demand. The US had accumulated a large Balance of Payments deficit, and was importing an ever-larger amount of goods and services from overseas, which resulted in accumulations of US currency in foreign countries, which the US gold reserves could no longer support.

 

The Current Model

In the aftermath of Bretton Woods, a Floating-Rate system of foreign exchange evolved, which is still in effect today, and is referred to as a "Managed Dirty Float". This expression refers to three characteristics of the system:

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Managed - National Central Banks, such as the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada actively leverage fiscal and monetary policy to attempt (with varying degrees of success) to influence exchange rates in directions consistent with national objectives.

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Dirty - Central Banks engage in Open Market Operations, the purchase and sale of currencies to influence exchange rates in desired directions. The reference here relates to the fact that currency trading is not a purely market-driven activity.

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Float - Exchange rates are largely permitted to float up or down in the Market according to the dynamics of supply and demand.     

Special Drawing Rights 

Special Drawing Rights (or SDR's) are a financial instrument created by the IMF to act as another form of Reserve, intended to facilitate trade by creating liquidity in the marketplace. Participating countries in need can use SDR's to obtain currency from other participants designated by the IMF. Available reserves are allocated to member countries based on factors such as share of Gross World Product and  share of World Trade. The value of 1 SDR once represented the weighted average of five currencies - the US Dollar, the German Mark, the French Franc, the Japanese Yen and the British Pound.

 

Factors Impacting Exchange Rates

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Balance of Trade - Net exporting nations will tend to generate demand for their currencies, driving the value upwards.

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Capital Flows - short term flows, driven by interest rates which attract or drive out investors also impact demand for a given currency, and therefore affect its exchange rate. Long term flows, driven by expected returns on investment similarly impact exchange rates. 

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Inflationary Pressures - upward pressure will tend to make purchases more expensive relative to other countries, driving demand for the currency and therefore its exchange rate, down.

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Fiscal, Monetary and Economic Policies - policies which result in above-average growth rates will tend to support the appreciation of a currency's exchange rate.

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International Competitiveness - competitive nations tend to see their currencies appreciate relative to others

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Political Climate - Stability, both current and future, or positive changes in political climate tend to support high exchange rates.

 

FX Exposure & Mitigation

Broadly stated, there are two categories of foreign currency exposure related to the conduct of business internationally. The first, referred to as Translation Risk, occurs when business transacted abroad in foreign currency (perhaps by a company subsidiary) must be reported and consolidated into the Parent Financial Statements, in domestic currency. The time lag between the foreign financial report and conversion/consolidation into the Parent statements creates the possibility that the foreign currency has devalued relative to the domestic, such that the revenues reported from the foreign business need to be revised downwards. Given the requirements of double-entry accounting that "Assets equal Liabilities plus Owner's Equity", decreases in the contribution of foreign operations will ultimately result in a decrease in Owner's Equity to keep the equation in balance. The Book Value of the company accordingly decreases. 

The second category of risk is referred to as Operating Exposure, where activities such as sourcing/purchasing in foreign markets can, in the event of unfavourable FX and/or price movements, adversely impact the Present Value of a company's (expected) cash flows, thus affecting not the Book Value, but the actual stock price, and by extension the Market Value.

A variety of financial devices exist to assist in optimizing or mitigating foreign currency risk exposure, the details and application of which can be assessed with professional assistance.

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Hedging, which involves taking an offsetting position in another currency in expectation of a coming devaluation

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Forward FX Contracts, which can be bought to allow purchase of a particular currency at a pre-determined (locked-in) rate, for situations where an upcoming foreign currency exposure is known ahead of time, such as the imminent issuance of a foreign currency letter of credit

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Currency Swaps, wherein parties agree to exchange a specified amount of one currency for another at an agreed price. Usually, both principal and interest amounts are exchanged, and the term exceeds one year   

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Currency Options, which give the option holder a right (Call Option) to purchase a given quantity of foreign currency at a predetermined price, or a right (Put Option) to sell a given amount of currency into the Markets at a preset price. Options may or may not be exercised by the holder, and are ideal in cases where the foreign currency exposure may not materialize, such as in responding to Tenders, where the winning bid has  not been determined

Foreign Exchange, as with many aspects of international commerce, presents risk as well as opportunity for the astute and well-informed business manager and executive. If your trade volumes are significant, or your deals are high value transactions, we recommend a thorough investigation of the impact of Foreign Exchange on your business, and a review of the opportunities which might exist to secure (or enhance) your success in the international market.

Copyright © 2007 A.R. Malaket and OPUS Advisory Services, International
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Last modified: October 2007

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